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NEWS POSTED ON:  2016-06-13 <-Back

Smucker, Food Stocks Spread Too Thin

The rally by Smucker, a poster child for investors’ ravenous hunger for yield and safety, looks too good to last

 
Smucker's preserves and spreads at a store last year. J.M. Smucker Co. is to report results Thursday.
Smucker's preserves and spreads at a store last year. J.M. Smucker Co. is to report results Thursday. PHOTO: GARY CAMERON/REUTERS

In investing, boring is often beautiful. Traditional packaged-food companies certainly fit the bill.

With interest rates around the world so low, or in some cases negative, shares of companies that offer reliable income with some growth have been particularly appealing. These so-called bond-like stocks have shined. Case in point: J.M. Smucker Co.

The producer of Folgers coffee, Pillsbury pastries, and of course its namesake jellies, jams and peanut butter, has been a beneficiary of investors piling into these stable businesses. Its shares touched a record high Wednesday, up 20% over the past 12 months.

But therein lies both the appeal and a conundrum: Investors are banking that sturdy companies that pay dividends, such as Smucker, will continue offering better returns than bonds. Yet they have also elevated stock prices without much change in business fundamentals.

THE WALL STREET JOURNALSource: FactSetStuffedAverage forward price/earnings multiple of five large packaged-food companies2014’15’161416182022
Jan. 23, 201416.036

As Smucker reports fiscal-fourth quarter results Thursday, the question now is whether these stocks and their rich valuations are worth chasing. Smucker, for one, might not be worth the risk.

Yes, it has benefited from its early 2015 acquisition of Big Heart Pet Brands. The $6 billion deal, including debt, was the biggest in the company’s history, which dates to 1897, when Jerome Monroe Smucker began pressing apple cider and selling apple butter from a horse-drawn wagon.

While last year’s deal has juiced revenue in recent quarters, it hasn’t done much to benefit the bottom line. Analysts project fiscal 2016 earnings of $6.36 a share, according to FactSet. That is virtually identical to the $6.37 a share they had forecast back in January 2015, just before the pet-food deal was announced.

Meanwhile, its shares have only gotten pricier. The stock fetches more than 20 times projected earnings over the next 12 months. That is roughly one-third above its 10-year average.

And Smucker isn’t alone. A basket including rivals ConAgra FoodsInc., General Mills Inc., Mondelez International Inc. and Kellogg Co.sports a forward multiple that is more than 30% above its long-term average. This further illustrates investors’ ravenous hunger for yield and safety.

 

Bond-like stocks are the trade du jour, never mind the hefty valuations. They look too good to last.




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